Saturday 18 June 2011

PUNTERS TIPS 18 JUNE 2011




·         The stock has been beaten down in excess of its intrinsic value,but the stake sale in the insurance business is a positive.
·         The charts are positive. The stock has support at 480. Above 540, the stock can rise to 600 levels. Exit on rallies.
IFCI Ltd(Hold)T-55-60

The stock is reasonably priced and a banking license could lead to a 20 per cent upside

Tata Steel Ltd(Hold)T-630-640

The fair value of the stocks is at 630-640 levels but a softening of metal prices has led to selling pressure. The Riversdale deal will add to capital profits. The valuations are attractive.

The fundamentals of the company have improved. It has leadership position in four states in South. The turnover and revenue has been good. The stock is not ideal for long term investing.

·         The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average (DMA) which is at 37. This is a sign of weakness. Hold with a stop loss of 28. Buy at dips.

·         There are strong expectations of a normal monsoon. The government might raise the price of urea and this will benefit gas-based fertilisers company. Hold
·         The chart shows good trend. The stock is likely to reach 420-450 in one year. The fundamentals of the company are good. This is the best stock in the telecom sector.
·         The conditions for the company are improving. It is expanding in Africa and Bangladesh, which is likely to boost its profitability.
·         It might take at least a quarter for the stock to rise significantly. The bank reported a decent set of numbers in the last quarter. Its CASA deposits were also up. The fundamental parameters and the management
·         The stock offers support at Rs. 287. It has resistance at 305. Once it reaches 305, it can move to 350. Fix a stop loss at 284.
NTPC Ltd(SELL)
·         Recently, coal blocks allotted to the company were cancelled. It has remained short of targets. The stock has not shown good performance. Exit the stock on upside and enter Tata Power.
·         The company offers limited profit opportunities. The investor can shift to pharma and banking sector stocks.
·       The fundamentals of the company have improved. It has leadership position in four states in South. The turnover and revenue has been good. The stock is not ideal for long term investing.
·       The stock can be avoided due to Aircel deal. The stock is volatile due to news flow.
·       A trend reversal pattern at 480 has been bearish for the stock. It has resistance at 322.
·       Despite controversies, it remains the highest viewed channel and advertising rates are highest in the industry. Valuations are cheap. However, the biggest concern is sentiment.

·       The stock is forming lower tops and bottoms since January 2011, which is a sign of weakness. The stock is coming down with larger volumes. It has support at 840-800. A pullback rally to 1100 is possible.
·       The company is struggling with margin pressure because of rising input costs and interest rates. However, JLR’s performance has been positive. Target 1200 in 1 year.

The risk is heavy in this stock. The investor can shift to Idea and Bharti Airtel.

·       The stock has corrected from 3,500. 50% stake in the stock can be sold and put into some other stock.
·       The stock is not positive in the longer term. If it goes up to 2600, then profits can be booked. Fix a stop loss of 2165.
·       The high provisioning in the fourth quarter was a one off case. The stock is trading at comfortable valuations. The rights issue will infuse Rs. 20,000 crore and will ease the present cash crunch. Can accumulate at lower levels of 2,150.


·       It might take at least a quarter for the stock to rise significantly. The bank reported a decent set of numbers in the last quarter. Its CASA deposits were also up. The fundamental parameters and the management guidance point towards improved prospects for the bank. Hold for long term
·       The stock offers support at Rs. 287. It has resistance at 305. Once it reaches 305, it can move to 350. Fix a stop loss at 284.
ITC Ltd(Hold)

It is the best performing Sensex stock. The company posted excellent numbers. It is a good defensive bet in the current downtrend. All its businesses - Cigarettes, Hotel, etc. are doing well.

The slowdown in auto industry will affect tyre sales. Rubber prices are high and expected to remain high.

·       The short term averages are below the long term averages indicating lack of investor confidence in the stock. It has been trading sideways for the past 8-10 weeks. The stock is in an oversold zone so a bounce back is possible. sell at 15-16 levels.

·       The stock saw solid unwinding post the LIC housing scam. It is an operator driven stock and momentum plays a big part in its movement. The company has been acquiring huge tracts of land in Ethiopia but there is no clarity on the plans. It is likely to be range bound in a band of 10-20. Sell on rise.
The return on capital of the company is 100% and return on equity is 70 to 80%. It has announced a dividend of Rs. 23 per share. There is not much competition in the market for this company. Buy and hold it for long term.


·       The stock is consolidating at the long term resistance levels of 350-360. A lot of buying support is coming in at every dip. A breakout above 360 will take the stock to 400 levels while a closing below 330 may see the stock fall to 280 levels.
·       The company posted strong Q4 earnings but royalty overhang may continue. If royalty is made cost-recoverable, it would have an impact of Rs. 50 per share on Cairn India's valuation



·       The stock has recovered smartly but downside risks remain on account of USFDA settlement. The stock has been range bound between 485-520 and 520 is a strong resistance.
·       The chart is positive for short and medium trend. Hold with a stop loss of 460.
Sugar stocks have come out of bull run. After the correction, the downside looks limited. Sugar production is likely to be higher. The stock might offer good trading opportunities.

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